THE suspension last week of both the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir David Lawal, and the Director-General of the National Intelligence Agency (NIA), Ayo Oke, is not just a testament to the attempt by the Muhammadu Buhari presidency to reinvigorate the anti-corruption war, it is an even more unflinching indication of the disorientation afflicting the highest seat of power. Given the presidential pussyfooting over the muddied case of Mr Lawal, whom the senate had accused of gross wrongdoings and abuse of office, Nigerians had wondered whether any proof would come to show that President Buhari had the courage to walk his talk. That proof has belatedly come, but it appeared to have been coaxed out of a reluctant presidency that has formed the habit of circling the wagons whenever its political piety and hypocrisies are questioned.
Last December, the senate had accused Mr Lawal of masterminding the award of fraudulent contracts in the Northeast and profiting from the distress experienced by internally displaced persons, victims of the Boko Haram war. The lawmakers called for his removal and prosecution. But in January, the presidency stuck with their man and virtually exonerated him. This led to a four-month period of back and forth between the senate and the presidency, culminating in furious and bad-tempered exchanges between the two powerful arms of government. Indeed, it seemed against the run of play when suddenly, in the heat of the scandal involving the NIA, Mr Lawal was asked to go on suspension, almost as a balancing act. The former SGF himself appeared puzzled by the drastic action, for everyone knows, as well as he, that he belonged to a powerful group in the presidency.
The suspension of Ambassador Oke was a bolt from the blue. It followed the discovery by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) of about N15bn, mostly in foreign currencies, stashed in a so-called safe house in Ikoyi, Lagos. Alarmed that such a huge sum was in the possession of an arm of the intelligence agencies, and bewildered that the money was idle for about two years or more, the president was said to have indicated his resolve to finally reinvigorate his flagging anti-corruption war after first expressing dismay. There were unconfirmed reports that the intelligence community tried to close ranks to defend and save Ambassador Oke, fearing that there would be no end to the meddlesomeness of the anti-graft agency in dealing inexpertly with the arcanum in which the secret service operates. If there was indeed such an effort, it stood little chance of succeeding in the face of an embittered populace sick and tired of graft and the squalor and indignity Nigeria’s distressed economy had sentenced them.
The public is sold on the idea that the sacking of Messrs Lawal and Oke is an indication of the fairness and fearlessness of the anti-graft war. They are entitled to their obsessions. They however need to cling to this hope in a country where nothing seems to work, and where everything that goes wrong can sensibly be blamed on the monies stolen and therefore not available to be ploughed into developing infrastructure or paying workers. The EFCC chairman himself has avidly sold that opinion and thus justified the open show he makes of every recovery of looted funds. Even though the EFCC has no direct hand in the fall of Mr Lawal, the agency can take pride in the influence it has garnered in the past few years, and the endorsements it has received from inside and outside the country. The fall of the NIA D-G, directly attributable to the EFCC, is a spectacular coup in this regard.
Even then, President Buhari faces a great dilemma. The aggressiveness of the EFCC, its successes, and the approving remarks of the public rub off well on the presidency. Considering how passionate he is about promoting his mostly laudable agenda and programmes but how enfeebled he is by his uncooperative body, President Buhari has sensibly come round to also endorsing Mr Magu as one of the few bright spots in his otherwise lacklustre presidency. However, despite the denials by his aides, the president also knows that his presidency is not as united as he would have loved it to be. Aso Villa only gives a facade of unity. Underneath is a powerful undertow of forces and interests that is difficult to navigate even by the most diplomatic and surreptitious of men. The president is limited in ideas, and he has found the rapids and falls along the journey dismaying and threatening. Mr Magu is not the most diplomatic of men. He is brash, self-righteous and eager to engage in a fight. He has no desire to tiptoe around the presidency or around the job entrusted to him. He senses he is surrounded by enemies, but he does not care.
The DSS, claiming to be doing its work diligently and without fear or favour, had twice tried to unhorse the swashbuckling Mr Magu, probably in collusion with a miffed and pugnacious senate. Instead, it was Mr Magu that exposed and unhorsed the boss of one of the intelligence services, the Nigerian equivalent of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). It is a rare but dangerous feat made infinitely more explosive by the manner of the exposure. It could have been done better, more effectively, perhaps more secretively without diminishing the importance of the discovery or compromising even the assignment of faults and punishment. But Nigerians want blood, and they want it openly, copiously and extraordinarily. Mr Magu has no intention of denying them the catharsis they clamour for.
President Buhari may be enfeebled by illness, but his aides have no desire to slacken their competition for the souls of the president and the presidency. The cost of sacking the SGF and NIA will become evident in the coming weeks, and it is likely to be excessive and punishing. With the National Assembly untamed but scorched and dangerous, with the presidency itself divided along powerful interests despite denials, and the ruling party weak, divided and devoid of passion and energy, the Buhari government is probably the most uncoordinated in the history of Nigeria. The disunity is self-inflicted. Increasingly, more people and politicians will be persuaded that 2018 will be a momentous year, a year in which the post-Buhari era will coalesce and be defined by powerful and ambitious interests. The politicians will struggle to view all that is happening with disinterest, but they will not let up in their contingency plans.
One way or the other something will have to give. It is hard to see both the SGF and the NIA D-G returning to their offices. They may not be found guilty of violating any law, but they will be shoved aside for multiple indiscretions, perhaps for lapse of judgement. The senate has observed these developments with cautious concern. Mr Magu, their nemesis, appears to be on the ascendancy both with the public and the presidency despite the exhausting and excruciating stalemate he gifted the lawmakers. That stalemate benefits only the EFCC chairman. To break the stalemate, the lawmakers will have to go to the courts to secure a favourable interpretation of Section 171. But should that interpretation favour Mr Magu, the senate would be in a quandary how to proceed next, seeing that the presidency secretly harbours the wish of finding the formula to castrate the legislature, and many Nigerians want it sacked altogether.
Between now and next year, when the hands of the Buhari presidency would be considerably weakened by time and political attrition, the struggle within the Aso Villa, whether they like it or not and whether they confess it or deny it, will take on titanic proportions. It would be a miracle for that epic war to end in clear victory for any of the combatants. For unlike a military regime where one powerful person can determine a lot of things, democracy thrives on consensus building, and consensus rests on compromise, diplomacy and sometimes phony wars. Mr Magu’s enemies and friends now know clearly that the EFCC would be undiscriminating in its work. If that epiphany does not concentrate their minds as viciously as a death sentence stupefies a convict, and stiffen their resolve against him to the utmost, nothing else on earth can.
The post SGF, NIA and a burdened presidency appeared first on The Nation Nigeria.